
Prop 8 on the move
Stephen Colbert had Dan Savage on his show tonight to discuss Proposition 8, a ballot measure in California to ban gay marriage. The measure passed, 52% to 48%.
On the show, Colbert stressed, as many other pundits have, that it was Barack Obama’s supporters in the black community that voted in the measure. And the data is convincing at first glance: African Americans voted for the measures 70% of the time, according to a CNN exit poll. (Regular warnings about using poll data apply. You can’t assume that these numbers are that accurate.)
However, let’s take a closer look at the numbers. Dan Savage said that older voters are the reason Prop 8 passed. And the 65+ crowd did vote for Prop 8 at a 61% rate. The rates go down by decade, mostly, which suggests that younger voters support gay marriage. Perhaps this will signal a repeal of the ballot measure in the future.
Importantly, however, Older people voted for the measure in larger numbers (11,304,910 voters in California X 15% are over 65 X 61% of these voted for prop 8 = 1,034,399) than black people did (11,304,910 voters in California X 10% are black % 70% of these voted for prop 8 = 791,343). The black voter margin is larger than the nearly 500,000 votes that the ballot passed by. So by this number, we could make a case that the black vote made a difference, but not as big a difference as the elderly and retired vote.
Now, let’s factor in the change from 2004 to 2008. the CNN exit poll from 2004 suggests that only 6% of voters were African-American (as opposed to 10% in 2008). That leaves a net change of about 450,000 new black voters. If 70% of those voted for prop 8, that’s well under the margin that Prop 8 passed by.
VERDICT: Black voters alone do not account for passing Prop 8. The largest groups to vote for Prop 8 are the elderly, followed by Republicans, who voted for the measure a whopping 82% of the time. (And then black voters. They’re number 3.)
PS. I love watching House in high definition.
UPDATE: I neglected to mention that older, black voters (the overlap of the main groups mentioned) are around 1% of the voting group. Small enough, for the statistical purposes, that I’ve ignored them. (Also, I’m assuming that older black voters would have voted for Prop 8 at the 70% or greater that the general black population did. Unfortunately, the CNN poll doesn’t have data broken down for black voters by age. Why is this? Good question.)